What Polymarket says about the Fed decision

How to read this page

Each row is an open Polymarket market related to this event. The big number is the probability the market assigns today to the leading outcome: it is the contract price, not a poll. The bar shows the Yes/No split and the line, the price over the last 7 days. Data comes from Polymarket's public API and refreshes every few minutes.

One market per meeting, others for the whole year

For each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), Polymarket typically lists a market with several options: hold, cut or hike, sometimes split by the size of the move. Separately there are longer-range markets, such as how many cuts will happen this year. Keep them apart: a meeting market can treat no change as nearly settled while the full-year market prices in several cuts further out.

What moves the price before the decision

Inflation (CPI) and the monthly jobs report move these markets most, along with speeches by committee members. A few days before each meeting officials enter a blackout period and stop discussing monetary policy; from then on, prices move mainly on data and press reports. On decision day the statement comes out at a set time and the market adjusts within seconds.

Another number you will see quoted is CME's FedWatch tool, which derives probabilities from interest-rate futures. If Polymarket and FedWatch disagree, neither is the right number: they are different markets with different participants. A persistent gap usually says more about who is trading each one than about the Fed.

How it resolves

The outcome comes from the Fed's official statement, which sets a target range for the federal funds rate. Each market's rules say which move counts toward each option; a bigger cut than expected, for instance, resolves to the larger-cut option, not the standard one. As everywhere on Polymarket, someone proposes the result to UMA's oracle and there are two hours to dispute it.

Frequently asked questions

What does "no change 95%" mean?

That the market pays 0.95 for the contract that the Fed holds rates. Near consensus, not certainty.

Do these markets charge fees?

Yes: economics has a 0.05 taker rate under Polymarket's official table.

How often does it update?

Every few minutes from the public API. Before each meeting volume rises and the price moves more.

Page reviewed on October 25, 2026.