What Polymarket says about the 2026 Colombia election

How to read this page

Each row is an open Polymarket market related to this event. The big number is the probability the market assigns today to the leading outcome: it is the contract price, not a poll. The bar shows the Yes/No split and the line, the price over the last 7 days. Data comes from Polymarket's public API and refreshes every few minutes.

First round, runoff and candidates who drop out

Colombia's presidency can take two election days to settle, and Polymarket tends to split the questions: who becomes president, who wins the first round, who reaches the runoff. Every name is an independent Yes/No contract, so read the spread across candidates as a price list, not a poll whose numbers add up to exactly 100.

Colombian campaigns are shaped by inter-party primaries, endorsements and withdrawals. When a contender steps aside and backs someone else, their contract tends to slide toward zero while part of that value shows up in the ally's price. If a name trades very low, check whether they are still on the ballot; the market rules say how a contract resolves for someone who never makes it there.

Preliminary count, official tally and resolution

On election night the Registraduría publishes the preconteo, a fast preliminary count that is not the official result; the escrutinio that certifies it comes later. Prices react to the preliminary numbers almost live, but resolution depends on the source named in each market's rules. In a tight race, that is why a contract can sit at 0.97 rather than 1 for hours.

Once the winner is clear, the result is proposed to UMA's oracle with a bond and a two-hour dispute window runs. If someone disputes it, UMA token holders vote and the payout is delayed.

Polymarket is not a Colombia poll

Plenty of people search for a Polymarket poll on Colombia, but this page does not show a poll: nobody is asking a sample of voters. Each percentage is the last price someone paid for a contract that pays 1 if that outcome happens. A poll measures voting intention on a given date; the market blends polls, news and whatever each trader believes, and it moves within minutes. That is why it can disagree with published polls, and neither one is an official result.

What the Coljuegos block means

In September 2025 Coljuegos ordered internet providers to block Polymarket, although enforcement has been patchy. That is why this page shows no sign-up links for Colombia and sticks to explaining the numbers. Watching the price tells you what the global market thinks about the race; it is not an invitation to trade from inside the country.

Frequently asked questions

Does Polymarket predict who wins in Colombia?

It does not predict: it shows what people pay for each outcome. A 70% means the market pays 0.70 for a contract worth 1 if it happens. It is a crowd opinion backed by money, not an official forecast.

Why does the percentage move so much?

Because it is a price. A new poll, a statement or a headline moves the orders and the price adjusts within minutes. Thin markets swing more.

Can I take part from this country?

It depends on Colombia's legal status. Check it in the by-country section before signing up. This site shows no sign-up links where Polymarket is blocked.

Page reviewed on October 25, 2026.