What Polymarket says about the Bitcoin price

How to read this page

Each row is an open Polymarket market related to this event. The big number is the probability the market assigns today to the leading outcome: it is the contract price, not a poll. The bar shows the Yes/No split and the line, the price over the last 7 days. Data comes from Polymarket's public API and refreshes every few minutes.

Three different questions about one price

Polymarket's Bitcoin markets usually ask one of three things: will the price be above a level at a set date and time, which range will it close in, or will it touch a level at any point before a date. The third is the one people misread most. A price that hits the level for a minute and then falls back already resolves Yes, whereas a close market only cares about the value at the fixed moment.

Range markets split the probability across adjacent bands, and adding neighbouring bands gives you the market's view of a wider interval. The 15-minute markets only ask whether the price goes up or down in that window, so their percentage tracks the chart almost tick by tick.

The price source and the clock decide

Each crypto market's rules name the exact price source, typically a specific exchange and trading pair, plus a reference time with its time zone; convert it to your local time. Two sites can show different prices in the same second, so what counts is the source in the rules, not whichever chart you happen to have open.

A high fee and frequent trading

Crypto carries Polymarket's highest taker rate, 0.07. On a contract at 0.10, 100 shares pay 0.63 USDC; at 0.50 they pay 1.75. In short-window markets the fee applies on every entry and exit, so trading often as a taker adds up quickly. US macro data and Federal Reserve decisions tend to move these markets at the same time as they move Bitcoin itself.

Frequently asked questions

Why are there so many Bitcoin markets?

Polymarket opens price markets by time window: 15 minutes, days, weeks and month end. They are the highest-volume markets on the platform and the ones with the highest fee (0.07 taker rate).

Does this predict the Bitcoin price?

It shows the probability the market assigns to each price range on a date. It is not a buy or sell recommendation.

Is it better to trade as a maker here?

In crypto the gap is large: 1.75 USDC per 100 shares at 0.50 as a taker, versus zero as a maker.

Page reviewed on October 25, 2026.