What Polymarket says about the Bank of Mexico

How to read this page

Each row is an open Polymarket market related to this event. The big number is the probability the market assigns today to the leading outcome: it is the contract price, not a poll. The bar shows the Yes/No split and the line, the price over the last 7 days. Data comes from Polymarket's public API and refreshes every few minutes.

How Banxico decides and what markets watch

Mexico's target rate is set by the Bank of Mexico's Governing Board at scheduled announcements that the bank publishes in advance on its calendar. Polymarket lists a market per announcement, with options such as hold, cut or hike. Banxico's statement reports how the board voted, and a split decision is often read as a hint of what comes next.

The inputs that matter most are the inflation figures INEGI releases every two weeks, the peso exchange rate and whatever the Federal Reserve does: a US cut or pause changes how much room Banxico has. It helps to read this page alongside the Fed decision page, since a surprise in Washington can reprice the Mexico market too.

Thinner markets

Banxico markets can carry far less volume than Fed markets. With a thin order book, the percentage can sit still for days and then jump on a single order, with nothing having changed in the economy. Before reading anything into a move, check the market's volume and the date of the next announcement.

Under the official formula, buying 100 shares at 0.90 costs 0.45 USDC in fees as a taker. That cost bites harder when a contract is already close to 1 and the possible gain is small.

Trading from Mexico

Mexico is not on Polymarket's restricted list and has no known local block, but the activity is not regulated by SEGOB or the CNBV: it is a grey area. Gains may have tax consequences, so speak to an accountant before you file.

Frequently asked questions

Why are there Banxico markets?

Polymarket opens economics markets for the most-followed central banks. Mexico's is one of them.

Do they charge fees?

Yes, 0.05 taker rate (economics). As a maker, zero.

Can I trade from Mexico?

Yes: Mexico is not restricted by Polymarket and has no known local block. Check the Mexico page before you start.

Page reviewed on October 25, 2026.